South Florida Home Sales, 3rd Quarter 2014

Summer activity for Single Family Homes (SFH) in the TriCounty area (Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade, the area from Jupiter to South Miami) is completely over, the market is noticeably getting quieter. All key numbers for Q3 2014 show this, and – unlike during earlier periods this year – all three counties moved in unison.

SE Florida SFH sales for the last 36 months. red = list price, green = selling price, blue = inventory. Source: Kaiser Assoc.

Some key data for the third quarter:

1. Inventory ended at 18,395 SFH, an increase of 3.6 percent to the second quarter. It now sits at 5.0 months, a very strong 16.7 percent over Q2, since closed SFH sales dropped by 4.3 percent over the previous quarter.

2. Asking prices of all SFH are down, landing at a median $376,700. September was the sixth month in a row with declining list prices – but because of the list price volatility, it ended up only 1.0 percent under September 2013.

3. Selling prices per square foot are slightly up y-o-y at $135/sf. Not so absolute selling prices at $265,470, though they have fluctuated all over the board this year from $251,000 in January to $279,000 in July. Year over year though, median selling prices in Q3 were up by 5.5 percent, but flat in comparison to Q2. Recognise a pattern? Good, me neither.

Tracks of a horseshoe crab–similarities to the housing market?

My prediction: the market is going up or going down.

Seriously: I think we will see a limp market for SFH for the rest of the year and perhaps into early 2015, with a lot of hesitation on the buyers’ side, though financing does not seem to be the issue anymore.

In addition, very problematic is the lack of good homes in the market for modern architecture, which I focus on. Buyer interest is there, but under $600,000 there are barely any architecturally interesting homes for sale.

So if you consider selling a modernist property, by all means please do contact me for a free analysis and consultation.