01 August 2014

S. Florida Homes Sales, 2nd Quarter 2014

It's time for us number-geeks to gather, isn't it? Let's do it:

For the first two quarters of 2014, absolute inventory of Single Family Homes (condos and townhouses are not subject of my data) remained glued to the table at just over 17,000 homes for sale, with a monthly variance of less than 400 units.

But the absorption – the rate of sales – increased every month this year, so much so that relative inventory shrunk from 6.3 months in January to 4.3 in June (relative inventory means: if no homes came to market, in 4.3 months at the current rate there would be nothing left to sell. A balanced market is said to linger around six months).

The blue curve shows the inventory volatility over the last three years very nicely:

Florida modern architecture and modern homes
SE Florida Single Family Home sales data, June 2011 to June 2014, ©tckaiser

Asking prices went up too, big surprise: from a median $378,000 in January to $398,000 in June, though the movement happened in the first quarter, while the second barely twitched.

Noticeable is an increase in selling prices: from a median of $251,000 in the always-lame-January (only few people think of real estate between Thanksgiving and New Year when January deals are signed) to a much more robust $274,000 in June.

That’s a solid nine percent increase over six months, and seven percent year over year. The culprit: lack of good and affordable inventory and a tighter market at the bottom price end.

If you know and like my “Disconnect” index – what sellers want and buyers are willing to pay:

That one sank. Two percentage points from the first quarter 2014 and a hefty 11 percent from the second quarter 2013. It seems sellers did not over-stretch buyers' willingness and wallet, as both became aware of a more limited selection.

One oddity I can not explain: the median duration of houses on the market - from hitting the MLS to contract – has hardly blinked in the last twelve months.

That goes against instinct when looking at dwindling inventory, but it's reality. Maybe you have an explanation?

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