Market Analysis in Real Estate: Art or Science?

Last week when accepting a new listing (a house to sell), I was reminded again what a sticky task a CMA (Comparative Market Analysis) can be. Even though I have done so many in 25 years of practice, I still wonder if it’s art or science or both. Case in point: In summer last year we had found a house for wonderful clients from Argentina. The clients did a great job in tastefully upgrading it and loved living in Boca, but two weeks ago we got the call: the husband had received a fantastic job promotion and thus the couple had to move again; did we have an interest in selling their home?

Preparing for meeting with them, my first impression was that the market hadn’t moved much since their purchase. But: they had upgraded and renovated quite a bit. They have a corner lot with only one neighbour and a golf course on the other side. They have a golf-course view. And: the school districts boundaries in their area have been reassigned, but our clients were lucky and stayed in the A-rated district.

So I started evaluating their house with RPR, a great tool available to real estate brokers and agents that starts with an automated valuation model which can be adjusted. To be on the safe side, I did a cross-analysis through our MLS system, and promptly came up with a different price corridor. So I did the third approach and pulled all relevant data into an Excel spreadsheet. From there I adjusted comparable houses with the parameters licensed appraisers use (which I am not), following UAD guidelines and area specifics. That was rather tedious but finally came up with a result I feel confident about. Photos are done and should be in tonight, so I’ll put the house on the market this weekend and hope my work pays off.

Because in the end, the market price is not determined by the Realtor, or by what the seller wants or needs, but by buyer demand. Coming close to that seems to me at least as much art as science.

On Home Scouting

Often times I get asked how I happen to know a neighbourhood or building that’s not really on the radar, or how I know my way in an area a bit out of the way.

Such as when driving home from the Gulf Coast: Alligator Alley (the highway crossing South Florida) was blocked right at mid-point between the coasts, due to a brush fire. The police diverted all traffic south to Miami–a big pain if heading home ENE towards Boca Raton. When I asked the officer if he instead would let us take the small roads heading northeast, he inquired if and how I knew my way. My answer: I ride my motorcycle often in that area. He was kind and let us through, saving us circa 2 h drive-time. 

Unexpected finds plop into view this way as well: I was riding to the Boynton Inlet on Easter Sunday, took a side road, from there a side road and from there another side road. Voila–I discovered this home, on a handkerchief-sized lot close to the beach.

And quite a few of the 4,100+ modernist homes I documented in SE Florida made it into my architecture address list that way. I still find new ones, especially when I scout a neighbourhood I haven’t seen yet.

So if you have a horse, a bike or a motorcycle–go ride and explore. Even if you get wet, it’s much more fun than Google Earth.

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Photo ©tckaiser

Alfred Browning Parker – a Must-See Exhibition

South Florida Modernist Addicts:

Cancel whatever you planned, take 2 hours and go see the exhibition on architect Alfred Browning Parker at the HistoryMiami museum - this Saturday or Sunday is your last chance!

The website of the museum http://www.historymiami.org/exhibition/alfredbrowningparker/ is rather unenticing in the description.

In reality the show is very interesting, featuring sketches, models, drawings, furniture, notes and photos, some in spectacular sizes.

(My photos: a sketch for one Parker's commissions, a model for one of his own houses, and a large interior shot centering on a tile floor Parker specified, with a floor-replica and real tile samples in front.)

Enjoy – and share how you liked the exhibition!

 

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Photos ©tckaiser

It's February 2nd

When fluffy adorable rodents do pitifully inaccurate weather forecasts...
it's Groundhog Day!

Time for a good movie...

Architects' Holiday Greetings VI

I cheated: Deezen who makes this card is actually a company selling greeting cards to architects and designers. But when in this card they lined up classic desk lamps (Arne Jacobsen?) like little birds on wires, I had to smile.

You too?

Architects' Holiday Greetings V

Happy Christmas and Hannukah with architect Sprenger's (near Stuttgart/Germany) lovely model house – complete with snow, lighting and a Christmas tree (as well as ruler, pencil and xacto knife).

Made me smile, just like the next one coming up...

Architects' Holiday Greetings IV

Undoubtedly an incredibly gifted architect, but who in Mr. Meyer's office is responsible for creating Holiday greetings? If you think the commission shown in this greeting card looks like a hotel: you're right.

Very subjectively of course but IMHO, the firm used better-themed project shots in prior years. So does this greeting make you feel the Holiday spirit? Me neither. – Next, I'll show you a different take on "greeting card with my own projects".