Dropbox' Hidden Dangers (OT)

A nasty incident last night is the motivation for this Off-Topic post today about Dropbox.

Scare: Last night around 11 pm, my wife called while visiting her family: quite a few files in Dropbox, which we use extensively – and typically flawlessly – for business and some private stuff are missing. Did I delete them?

Details: A quick survey discovered that over 3 gigabyte of data of a total of circa 7 gb were deleted. Even stranger, they supposedly were deleted from my personal laptop, over a period of about two hours. Two more oddities: the files were deleted while I was nowhere near my computer; and: the deletions were very selective. Not complete folders went AWOL, but perhaps 90% in one folder, 5% in another, 60% in a third and so on. Some personal things, some business files, some software, some phone apps. You get the idea.

Solution: Neither the hidden Dropbox cache nor the Events Timeline showing deleted files were complete and practical solutions for restoring several thousand lost files. But since I had worked in my office until lunch, the office computer did have a complete Dropbox snapshot, lacking only the last six or eight hours (the time between my shutting it off and the deletions).

So last night I unlinked the office computer (and all others), changed the Dropbox password, and created an external backup of what was left of Dropbox and of the hidden Dropbox cache.

This morning in the office then, I immediately turned off Dropbox sync (with an unlinked computer technically not necessary, but I had to be sure), then synced the office Dropbox folder with my the external backup and thus created a second identical copy, minus about eight hours of changes.

Syncing that back to Dropbox on my personal computer restored 3gb of data, missing only a few files from yesterday afternoon, which I still have to hunt for in either “Previous Versions” on Dropbox or in the saved cache. 

Possible Explanation: From a logical perspective, I see five possibilities: 1. I personally deleted the data, or someone else at my laptop. 2. My wife deleted the data. 3. Our Dropbox is shared with another person/s. 4. The Dropbox servers conched out. 5. Our Dropbox account got compromised.

Going down the list: 1: nope – I was not at my computer and home alone. 2: nope – cui bono? My wife and I work together, and she has neither reason nor time nor incentive to torpedoe our work and selectively delete over 18,000 files. 3: nope – it isn’t shared. 4: possible. 5: possible.

Consequence: Despite Dropbox being brilliant most of the time, reliance on cloud-based storage is simply not justified as we all should know; I got my personal reminder last night. Only the fact that I have several computers linked to Dropbox saved my Speck.

In the light of my experience – and I’m sure I’m not alone – the ever-increasing push in favour of cloud storage from mobile phone manufacturers to eliminate SD-card storage or from companies like Google to offer Net-Books without hard drives is deeply flawed, risky and plain irresponsible. Do not fall for it.

Did you have a similar experience with any cloud-based storage? Please share it, and also any preventive measures you implemented – thanks!

South Florida Housing Market, 2nd Quarter 2013

The second Quarter 2013 sales statistics for single family homes in the tricounty area Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade didn’t surprise: traditionally, May and June are the busiest sales numbers throughout any year, and 2013 continued the trend.

Probably a major factor in this purchase pattern are families moving into desirable school districts as soon as school is out for the summer, so everything is place when the new school year starts in August.

In addition, a lot of cash floating around needs to be parked somewhere, so when stocks, bonds and gold are a tad volatile, what’s the average millionaire to do? Hide it? No – buy waterfront homes; what else?

Q II 2013 vs. Q II 2012 by the numbers:

    –16%   Number of Houses for sale
    –27%   Inventory for sale (absorption rate in months)
    +17%  Median list price
      +9%  Median list price/sf
    +15%  Number of Houses sold (quarter)
    +24%  Median selling price
    +20%  Median selling price/sf

One prospective buyer reprimands me at every contact, in a stern tone of voice: “I will not let the market force my hand to buy something”. He has been completely priced out of the market, but still clings to the believe he has the upper hand. Correct in some way: he didn’t have to buy, and now he can’t, because he waited to long. 

SE Florida single family homes: inventory, median asking prices and median selling prices, June 2010 - June 2013. Source: Kaiser Assoc.

My specialty, modern architecture, is especially difficult: inventory under ca. $900,000 has fallen off the cliff in the last 10 to 16 months, and is now basically wiped clean. The few good modernist homes that come to market typically sell within a few weeks, often only days, without ever seeing the MLS, to registered buyers ready to act with their finances all lined up.

For the near future, unless some unforeseen events happen, I do not expect a drastic change in direction, though according to a new CoreLogic/Case-Shiller report, some analysts predict a trend reversal for 2014. This August at least seems already a bit saner, if one can tell in the middle of the month. With Florida home ownership rates on the decline and affordability dwindling, calmer winds would not be a bad situation.

For now – if you own a modern home and have questions about it or consider selling: I’d love to hear from you!

Property Values: What you get for $800,000

In the ever-shrinking real estate market South Florida currently experiences, modern architecture is not exempt from the dreaded TIS, also known as the Tight-Inventory-Syndrom. Especially hard-hit are the price brackets under $1.0 million.

Here is a sampling of what is available now if you are looking for modernist homes between $750,000 and $850,000:

2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 1,531 sf under air (141 m2), built in 1960. Asking $799,500 ($522/sf, $5,676/m2). A fine remodel of a flat roof mid-century-modern home, probably one of the nicest current examples in this price bracket.

2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2200 sf under air (202 m2) on a 9,000 sf lot (828 m2), waterfront with bay access, built in 1952. Asking $849,000 ($386/sf, $4,195/m2). Typical MiMo-style house on the water with fixed bridges, in a nice area to boot.

5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 3953 sf under air (364 m2) on a 8,359 sf lot (769 m2) with pool. Asking $849,000 (215/sf, $2,334/m2). Appealing modernist two-story house in a neighbourhood with quite a few hidden modernist gems.

3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1,742 sf under air (160 m2) on a 7,500 sf lot (690 m2), with pool,, built in 1968. Asking $749,000 (430/sf, $4,674/m2). A fine example of the architecture of beloved local Donald Singer.

5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 2,935 sf under air (270 m2) on a 15,290 sf lot (1,407 m2), with pool, built in 1963. Asking $860,000 (293/sf, $3,185/m2). Not quite consequent in all details (e.g. crown molding), but a nice open remodel.

4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2554 sf under air (235 m2) on a 2554 sf lot (235 m2), with pool, built in 1958. Asking $849,000 (332/sf, $3,613/m2). Not yet verified, this house shows a lot of details typical for a true Florida luminary: APB, or Alfred Browning Parker.

3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 2530 sf under air (233 m2) on a 41817 sf lot (3,847 m2), with pool, built in 1953. Asking $750,000 (296/sf, $3,222/m2). The opposite to above, so to speak: this kitchen photo exemplifies the train wreck that happens when uninformed (or uninterested?) owners remodel a modernist house. Be prepared to de-renovate.

3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2,986 sf under air (275 m2) on a 17,244 sf lot (1,586 m2), with pool, built in 1973. Asking $749,000 (251/sf, $2,726/m2). Owners with considerably more taste left this house mostly untouched, with good period details worth keeping.

3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2,844 sf under air (262 m2) on a 10,075 sf lot (927 m2), with pool, built in 1971. Just sold for $775,000 (273/sf, $2,962/m2). This classic by architect Wahl Snyder was so briefly on the market that I didn't have a chance to view it – but if the new owners read this and ask me over I will make time right away, naturally.

3 bedrooms, 4.5 bathrooms, 3,925 sf under air (361 m2), pool, waterfront, built in 1988. Asking $795,000 (203/sf, $2,202/m2). On the border between modernist and contemporary, but a light-filled space in an area sparse with modern architecture could make this house an appealing option.

3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1810 sf under air (167 m2) on a 6,255 sf lot (575 m2), built in 1976. Asking $799,500 (442/sf, $4,801/m2). An earlier design of Miami architect Michael Simonhoff, who seems to be still practicing.

What are you comments on these houses, and what do you think of the value equation they offer?

Looking forward to your thoughts: good, bad or indifferent – and have a great weekend!

Have a lovely Independence Day!

In lieu of a modernist house with flag, here is a shot I took on motorcycle tour
from the Turkey Point Lighthouse at Elk Neck State Park, Maryland.

Burning Down a Breuer

At 2:15 am Sunday morning in St Paul, Minnesota, Chris Larson set fire to Chad Bogdan’s Marcel-Breuer-designed 1962 Kacmarcik house. Or something that looked a lot like it. The two-bedroom house was unoccupied at the time. 

First, a tube of smoke spiraled out of the house. A moment later, the roof was on fire. By the time the walls started collapsing, the conflagration may have been close to 2,000 degrees, or so said the guy on the fire truck, and he should know.

The building shouldn’t have burned so quickly. It was one of about 100 homes drafted by the well-known Bauhaus architect Marcel Breuer, who later designed the Whitney Museum of American Art. And as a matter of taste, he had specified incombustible materials: white concrete block for the walls, red ceramic tile for the floors.

Actually, the whole story is not as jaw-dropping as it sounds; both arsonist and owner did have a good time. How did that happen?

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On a sad note, I want to pay respect to my great friend Don who we lost last Saturday due to cardiac arrest. He was a kind, generous and big-hearted gentleman, an architect, fellow barbecuer (I nearly said "fellow architect") and fine yacht cabinetry builder, and he will be missed, very much so. Thank you for your wonderful friendship, Don, and Godspeed.

Photo ©NYTimes

It caught my eye: Modernist Hotel Signs in Miami

Seems lately I'm in Miami on a daily basis. With all that driving around a lot of architecture catches your eye, but you can't observe it in detail when you have a client in the car.

But recently I took my new camera with me, to take photos of hotel signs I had seen before. These signs of Miami Modern glamour from the 40s and 50s ("MiMo") I found on a stretch of Biscayne Boulevard (aka US1) in the 60s and 70s:

...and my favourite, for the absolutely priceless detail in the fountain as well as that lovely name:

Front elevation of the Vagabond Motel, designed ca. 1953 by Delano Hotel architect B. Robert Swartburg and currently waiting to be remodeled:

Did I overlook any beautiful ones you know of? Send them in please!

Update on 21 May 13: Biscayne Times has a great piece on the Biscayne Boulevard Miami Modern Historic District (yes, it is quite a mouthful). And more on the Vagabond Motel – did I mention that I love the fountain? – and its planned rehab at curbed.miami.
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Photos © tckaiser

Nothing beats being On Site

Modern communication, blessing and curse – always within reach, auto-uploads to Dropbox, instant feedback, blogging from the coffee-shop, sharing photos instantly, Skype conferencing, pushing privacy limits.

What falls by the wayside? I don’t mean intonation, facial expressions and haptics, but those can get lost too.

What gets lost is the big picture, the overview, the impression – which, astonishingly enough, is not the sum of all things recordable and transferable via LTE. To quote architect Dieter van Everbroeck: "Good architecture is always about the site". Or being on site.

I got an interesting lesson the other day: 

A very attractive house by a respected modernist architect came to market. The client who was most interested in it lives a few thousand miles away, he could not come down for weeks to see it. But he expressed great interest, so I drove over and previewed the house.

The MLS photos were gorgeous images done by a professional, mine were snapped with a smart phone on a rainy day. And neither ones are lying.

But my preview also showed a bit more real life than the listing photos. My overall impression of the house and the area was such that the client, after discussing it at length over the phone and seeing my photos, dropped the property from his list.

There was nothing wrong with the house. But only experiencing the property in situ gave a complete picture, including wear and tear and pros and cons and surroundings.

The take-away: Do not rely on impressions that can be pulled from the web – nothing beats standing on the site, hearing, feeling and sensing it.

Did you ever have a similar experience as mine? Care to share?