18 April 2014

Market Report for Southeast Florida, First Quarter 2014

The first quarter of 2014 repeated some trends that I have observed at least since 2009, most obvious being the falling inventory.

This year, all three counties started 2014 quite a bit higher than year's end, but over the course of three months fell back to December levels quickly.

Median relative inventory now stands at 6.3 months (means: if no new house comes on the market, everything is sold in 6.3 months). That is due to rising number of sales, outpacing the rising number of homes on the market.

In all three counties, asking prices per 31 March exceeded asking prices per year-end, and except for Miami-Dade, the same goes for selling prices (absolute and per sf).

However, the time homes spent on the market (beginning of the listing until a contract is signed, the so-called “Days-on-Market”) increased in all three counties, most noticeably in Palm Beach county.

Interesting also: the very same goes for the Seller-Buyer-Disconnect, the gap between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to give (= pay). As it has been since I analyse monthly, the disconnect number again is largest in Palm Beach county, with 161 percent.

South Florida single family home market, last three years: Inventory, Median asking prices and Median selling prices, Apr 2010 - Mar 2014.

As all projections – especially mine – are notoriously off, I will not lean out of the window except to say that the second quarter will be a very active one, as it traditionally is:

June is busiest home selling month in South Florida. With rising sales and stagnant inventory, that should lead to further price increases.

We’ll see.


“All is Lost”

Did you watch Robert Redford’s latest movie, “All is Lost”?

My wife and I did on Tuesday, together with a sailing friend. I just have to vent.

Even as a non-sailor and non-boater, as someone who can barely differentiate a boom from a mast, all three of us were incredibly ticked off by the countless flaws and harrowing boating mistakes – obviously dramaturgically necessary to propel the story forward, else the plot would have sunk much faster than the poor boat in the film did.

She only had a nasty gash in the hull, but the film’s story had holes you could drive the Exxon Valdez through. What an insult to our intelligence.

Seems though that – outside the sailing community perhaps – everyone else, including my fav reviewer Joe Morgenstern from the WSJ, loved the movie.

I don’t get it. But at least now I feel better.


Coming up

A new series, following the ground-up construction of a 4,000+ sf modern house

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