South Florida Home Sales, 1st Quarter 2015

March brought the Big Thaw – single family houses sales in Southeast Florida, in the area between Stuart and Homestead, increased substantially in March.

With that, the last month capped a first quarter that started characteristically slow in January and ended with 4.6 months inventory in March – which in turn trumped the very active December with 4.8 months inventory (read: at the current pace of sales, the market would be wiped clean in 4.8 months. Healthy is approx. 6 months).

Southeast Florida single family home data, Mar 2013 - Mar 2015. Red = List price, Green = Selling price, Blue = Inventory (months). Source: Kaiser Assoc. via SEF-MLS

All the activity brought an increase in the March median list price in the Tricounty area of 9.5 percent year over year, to $425,000.

Actual selling prices reached $282,200 at the end of the quarter, exceeding the December selling prices by nearly $10,000 and 7.8 percent y-o-y.

Note however the “disconnect” between what sellers are asking and what buyers are willing to pay. The index I created to measure this crucial information reached 151 percent in March, a massive 11 percent points above December and also the last three quarters of 2014.

So does that mean prices for SFH will continue to increase?

Right now it looks like it.

But especially May and June, traditionally the months with the most closings (likely tied in with the end of the school year), will tell a better story. And who knows what political and economic developments summer and autumn will bring?

Leaving you somehow dangling in mid-air without a better forecast, the only thing I can do for now is to wish you a fine weekend!

Market Report for Southeast Florida, First Quarter 2014

The first quarter of 2014 repeated some trends that I have observed at least since 2009, most obvious being the falling inventory.

This year, all three counties started 2014 quite a bit higher than year's end, but over the course of three months fell back to December levels quickly.

Median relative inventory now stands at 6.3 months (means: if no new house comes on the market, everything is sold in 6.3 months). That is due to rising number of sales, outpacing the rising number of homes on the market.

In all three counties, asking prices per 31 March exceeded asking prices per year-end, and except for Miami-Dade, the same goes for selling prices (absolute and per sf).

However, the time homes spent on the market (beginning of the listing until a contract is signed, the so-called “Days-on-Market”) increased in all three counties, most noticeably in Palm Beach county.

Interesting also: the very same goes for the Seller-Buyer-Disconnect, the gap between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to give (= pay). As it has been since I analyse monthly, the disconnect number again is largest in Palm Beach county, with 161 percent.

South Florida single family home market, last three years: Inventory, Median asking prices and Median selling prices, Apr 2010 - Mar 2014.

As all projections – especially mine – are notoriously off, I will not lean out of the window except to say that the second quarter will be a very active one, as it traditionally is:

June is busiest home selling month in South Florida. With rising sales and stagnant inventory, that should lead to further price increases.

We’ll see.

________

“All is Lost”

Did you watch Robert Redford’s latest movie, “All is Lost”?

My wife and I did on Tuesday, together with a sailing friend. I just have to vent.

Even as a non-sailor and non-boater, as someone who can barely differentiate a boom from a mast, all three of us were incredibly ticked off by the countless flaws and harrowing boating mistakes – obviously dramaturgically necessary to propel the story forward, else the plot would have sunk much faster than the poor boat in the film did.

She only had a nasty gash in the hull, but the film’s story had holes you could drive the Exxon Valdez through. What an insult to our intelligence.

Seems though that – outside the sailing community perhaps – everyone else, including my fav reviewer Joe Morgenstern from the WSJ, loved the movie.

I don’t get it. But at least now I feel better.

________

Coming up

A new series, following the ground-up construction of a 4,000+ sf modern house

South Florida Housing Market in August

August was yet another month with little action in the single family home market in Southeast Florida. It seems the summer heat took its toll on home buyers and sapped their energy after the school vacations. Apropos: one client, who thought he knew the real estate market better than anyone else, lost a bet on which is the busiest home-buying in Florida.

I’ll give you the answer next month – which month do you think it is?

Back to last month: while total inventory at 15,082 homes keeps shriveling month by month (-1.9%), the loss of homes available for sale year over year is quite astonishing, at -26.7%.

The current highest inventory count goes to Palm Beach county with 5.2 mos, followed by 4.7 mos in Miami-Dade and 3.4 in Broward – overall a slight decrease to previous months. Never mind that certain niches like waterfront homes with ocean access are experiencing absurd price increase, even during the listing period, and still sell like warm bread from the oven.

South Florida total real estate inventory ending 24 Sep 2012. Source: SEF-MLS via Condovultures

Of very little consequence in my opinion however are two well-published numbers: asking prices and pending sales. Looking at those feels to me a bit like celebrating already just because someone lent you a buck to play the lottery.

Of much more interest – and reader Narvey agrees, thank you so much! – is the "delta" between sellers’ expectations and buyers’ price acceptance. Seen county by county:

• 188% delta or +5% in Palm Beach, with soft prices mom (month over month), and -4% yoy (year over year)
• 172% delta or -14% in Miami-Dade, prices -4% mom, but +4% yoy
• 144% delta or +4% in Broward, with no price change mom, and +10% yoy

The August chart and the numbers:

South Florida home sales August 2011-2012, Source: SEF_MLS, ©tckaiser/modernsouthflorida.com

If you are in the modern market, here is an interesting number to close with:

modern architecture sold in August for a median of $229/sf, an increase of 16% year-over-year and a very juicy 110% premium over the price of your average home.  Talk about a good investment.

I wonder – how does the market influence your decision and timing to buy or sell?

South Florida House Market in June

Single family home data in June continue along the same line as in previous months, with decreasing inventory – relative as well as absolute – and increasing prices, on a monthly as well as annual basis.

Especially Broward county shows the lowest monthly inventory since this website began recording relative inventory. (January 2008).

Prices: slight overall increases in Palm Beach County, absolute as well as per sf under air, but with a very high disconnect score of 178 between sellers' and buyers' price expectations. 

In Broward, asking prices didn't move, but median selling prices went up a notch, while selling price per sf decreased a bit. Interesting: the seller/buyer price disconnect is the lowest of the counties observed, at 138 points and shrinking.  

Miami-Dade, with a disconnect as high as in Palm Beach county, showed slightly higher asking prices but lower selling prices, probably due to buyers (or lenders?) shying away from unrealistic asking prices. 

The numbers:

and the chart:

South Florida home sales June 2011-2012 ©tckaiser/modernsouthflorida.com

- Have a nice weekend, and until next time.