28 September 2012

South Florida Housing Market in August

August was yet another month with little action in the single family home market in Southeast Florida. It seems the summer heat took its toll on home buyers and sapped their energy after the school vacations. Apropos: one client, who thought he knew the real estate market better than anyone else, lost a bet on which is the busiest home-buying in Florida.

I’ll give you the answer next month – which month do you think it is?

Back to last month: while total inventory at 15,082 homes keeps shriveling month by month (-1.9%), the loss of homes available for sale year over year is quite astonishing, at -26.7%.

The current highest inventory count goes to Palm Beach county with 5.2 mos, followed by 4.7 mos in Miami-Dade and 3.4 in Broward – overall a slight decrease to previous months. Never mind that certain niches like waterfront homes with ocean access are experiencing absurd price increase, even during the listing period, and still sell like warm bread from the oven.

South Florida total real estate inventory ending 24 Sep 2012. Source: SEF-MLS via Condovultures

Of very little consequence in my opinion however are two well-published numbers: asking prices and pending sales. Looking at those feels to me a bit like celebrating already just because someone lent you a buck to play the lottery.

Of much more interest – and reader Narvey agrees, thank you so much! – is the "delta" between sellers’ expectations and buyers’ price acceptance. Seen county by county:

  • 188% delta or +5% in Palm Beach, with soft prices mom (month over month), and -4% yoy (year over year)
  • 172% delta or -14% in Miami-Dade, prices -4% mom, but +4% yoy
  • 144% delta or +4% in Broward, with no price change mom, and +10% yoy

The August chart and the numbers:

South Florida home sales August 2011-2012, Source: SEF_MLS, ©tckaiser/modernsouthflorida.com

South Florida home sales August 2011-2012, Source: SEF_MLS, ©tckaiser/modernsouthflorida.com
South Florida home sales August 2011-2012, Source: SEF_MLS, ©tckaiser/modernsouthflorida.com

If you are in the modern market, here is an interesting number to close with:

modern architecture sold in August for a median of $229/sf, an increase of 16% year-over-year and a very juicy 110% premium over the price of your average home.  Talk about a good investment.

I wonder – how does the market influence your decision and timing to buy or sell?

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