The Current Housing Market in Southeast Florida

Time for an update for all you statistics-fans who are riveted by real estate minutiae (yes, all two of you).

I am not quite sure when, but I believe in July or August I got the first hunch that the market for single family homes was loosing steam.

Back then, a prospective seller had waited forever to list her house with me, to a point where she and I did not agree on a list price anymore. Another seller, a couple, was very realistic when a price pre-determined in May had to be corrected downward – with the result that their house sold within four days of becoming available and appraised properly. Which confirms again what I learned in a seminar a few years ago: once a house enters the proper selling price corridor, it should sell within approx. 45 days.

More on that in another post. Today's subject is market data.

As available inventory started to creep up in fall – the low point for the Tri-County area was April with 12,513 single family homes for sale – asking prices did not react until two months later, when the first noticeable drop came (median $408,150 to $401,650).

But the interesting part: selling prices increased until Christmas.

They rose from $255,333 in April to $265,000 in December, and only dropped again in January, to $250,917.

Psychologically perhaps to be explained by a lower "Disconnect" ratio – what sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay – heading from 166% in April down to 141% in December, back up to 151% in January.

So the Seller-Buyer-Disconnect, which I have been calculating since five years, again mirrors the overall market and proves to be a good trend indicator.

Judging from the current trend, it seems like at least for the first quarter, there is no upswing in prices – niche products and super-trendy areas like the Miami Bay perhaps excluded.

Consequences for sellers and buyers? I will talk about that next time. In the meantime, please do contact me with any questions you may have.

SE Florida single family homes market last three years: Inventory, Median asking prices and Median selling prices, Dec 2010 - Jan 2014. Break indicates end 2012. Source: Kaiser Assoc.

Loans for Modern Homes Are Possible

When you are working with modern architecture, one of the big problems can be the appraisal (and the loan) for a modernist home. 

To quote my friend George Smart from the non-profit North Carolina Modernist Homes:

Just mention a Modernist-house loan, and most bankers give a deer-in-the-headlights look that usually ends in time-consuming disappointment. 

The loan process can take many months, if it happens at all, and getting comped against non-Modernist neighborhood houses can yield unrealistically low appraisals.  

Home buyers in the North Carolina Triangle region, an area chock full of modern architecture (though not quite as many documented as in Southeast Florida counting over 2,400 mod residences) got a break: 

They now have a lender (Harrington Bank) that seems to have at least some understanding of the uniqueness of modern houses. Utilising the extensive architecture archives of NCMH, the bank states: 

Rather than restricting [three comparables] to just a few miles away, if there are no Modernist homes found nearby we’ll use two additional specifically Modernist homes up to 20 miles from the subject property. That means we can comp against previous Modernist homes almost anywhere in the Triangle. 

I count myself lucky enough to have recently worked with three (!) different Southeast Florida appraisers who know and appreciate modern architecture. Not one but three - that is a miracle in itself.

But if you are a South Florida lender – or know of one – who understands and works with modern architecture, and is willing to go the extra mile (or 20), please do drop me a note! Many thanks.

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*Raleigh - Durham - Chapel Hill. Full disclosure: no consideration of any type has been received in exchange for this blog post.

Immobilienscout24 Expose 49002387

Wenn Sie sich auf Immobilienscout24 für eine Wohnung in 82319 Starnberg interessieren, die derzeit unter der Exposénummer 49002387 mit dem wonnigen Titel

"Frühlingserwachen: Sonnige Terrassenwohnung und Garten oberhalb des Sees" 

offeriert wird, dürfen Sie mich gerne zu Adresse und Hintergrundinformationen zu Wohnung und Vermietern kontaktieren.

A blessed New Year to you!

Thank you to all of our clients and friends, and a blessed, abundant and prosperous 2014 to you!

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©harrisongreetingcards.com

13 Worst Home Photos in 2013

Between all the heavy food for the Holidays, it may be time for some lighter fare.

In the Realtors' database of homes for sale (the "MLS"), one can see a lot of awful photos.

I'm a big contributor: I take a truckload of bad photos, but still, I must wonder if whoever took those photos – mostly the real estate agents, only with expensive properties also professional photographers – couldn't pour just a bit more love into it.

So as 2013 closes, here are my winners for this year:

This is one corner of one of the rooms in our house.

Someone else's belly, not mine

If you wake up drunk in your new home, that's the view.

Landscaping is for Loosers.

Everything here's for sale... if the price is right and if you really want it.

Our family believes in preparing for emergencies. Of all kinds.

Never mind the wet towel. It'll be gone by the time we move out.

My flash reaches farther than your flash.

I waited a long time until three cars came rushing by perfectly lined up.

My, what a big generator...

Sometimes when a boat comes by, it gets a tad darkish in the house.

Sorry, but I couldn't be bothered to A) hold the camera straight B) to open the window C) to turn of that flash.

The kitchen of this home comes with ceiling lights.

By the way, the last photo is of one of my masterpieces. It never saw the MLS, but my clients and I had a good laugh about it. – If you have a good contestant at hand, would you share it with me?

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

Snowmen kissing, Feldafing/Bavaria 2000. ©tckaiser

Art Miami 2013 - Impressions and Thoughts

In the choice between Design Miami and Art Miami, art won this year – I was blessed with preview tickets to both events on Tuesday evening.

A few thoughts, from a naive and uneducated layperson's perspective:

1. a friend of mine is a curator and gallerist - how much fun must it be to walk an art fair with a pro!

2. there was a clear differentiation from tent to tent (Art Basel - Context - Red Dot), becoming funkier and odder each time.

3. Lots of interesting art, but very little I would hang (which means nothing, coming from a terrone like me). Some of the exceptions include especially two lovely Milton Averys, at just under $1m each.

4. A flood of Calders, paintings and mobiles – where did they come from?

5. It seems odd that there is not as much gallery specialisation or focus – at least not visible to me – as I thought in this market would be. Is everyone really selling everything? (not a total serious question).

6. Miami is becoming so in. Art is already in. Both together: even inner. Best to be seen slightly unshaven, a bit sloppily dressed, driving a Maserati or at the very least a black Range (nice cars both), having a very pretty woman approx. 20 years younger hanging from your arm, with endlessly long legs and impossibly high Blahniks. Now you belong.

An LED-lit wire sculpture floating above our heads, by Michael Gard. Excellent.

"The Selfish Gene", painted bronzes by Marc Quinn at Forsblom

Didn't take any notes on this one. Bad Tobias! Likely at Rudolf Budja Gallery

"Reveur" (Dreamer) by Cyrille Andre, at Piece Unique

"The Conversation" by Milton Avery at arcature

Blue stones (marble?) moving up and down - riveting! By Paula Rivas at Aldo de Sousa

Not an objet d'art but a very campy Westie-vase

Lifesize bronze by Chinese artist Xie Aige, at Michael Goedhuis

(Three Bathers), another lovely Milton Avery

Render: "Chinoiserie" (vases inside out) by likeable and enthusiastic Molly Hatch, at Todd Merrill

Did you see the show? And what were your thoughts?

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Photos ©tckaiser