16 August 2013

South Florida Housing Market, 2nd Quarter 2013

The second Quarter 2013 sales statistics for single family homes in the tricounty area Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade didn’t surprise: traditionally, May and June are the busiest sales numbers throughout any year, and 2013 continued the trend.

Probably a major factor in this purchase pattern are families moving into desirable school districts as soon as school is out for the summer, so everything is place when the new school year starts in August.

In addition, a lot of cash floating around needs to be parked somewhere, so when stocks, bonds and gold are a tad volatile, what’s the average millionaire to do? Hide it? No – buy waterfront homes; what else?

Q II 2013 vs. Q II 2012 by the numbers:

    –16%   Number of Houses for sale
    –27%   Inventory for sale (absorption rate in months)
    +17%  Median list price
      +9%  Median list price/sf
    +15%  Number of Houses sold (quarter)
    +24%  Median selling price
    +20%  Median selling price/sf

One prospective buyer reprimands me at every contact, in a stern tone of voice: “I will not let the market force my hand to buy something”. He has been completely priced out of the market, but still clings to the believe he has the upper hand. Correct in some way: he didn’t have to buy, and now he can’t, because he waited to long. 

Single family home inventory and prices for Southeast Florida, June 2010 - June 2013. Source: Kaiser Assoc.
SE Florida single family homes: inventory, median asking prices and median selling prices, June 2010 - June 2013. Source: Kaiser Assoc.

My specialty, modern architecture, is especially difficult: inventory under ca. $900,000 has fallen off the cliff in the last 10 to 16 months, and is now basically wiped clean. The few good modernist homes that come to market typically sell within a few weeks, often only days, without ever seeing the MLS, to registered buyers ready to act with their finances all lined up.

For the near future, unless some unforeseen events happen, I do not expect a drastic change in direction, though according to a new CoreLogic/Case-Shiller report, some analysts predict a trend reversal for 2014. This August at least seems already a bit saner, if one can tell in the middle of the month. With Florida home ownership rates on the decline and affordability dwindling, calmer winds would not be a bad situation.

For now – if you own a modern home and have questions about it or consider selling: I’d love to hear from you!

No comments: