23 January 2015

South Florida Home Sales, 4th Quarter 2014

Fourth quarter home sales are always hampered by the Holiday season, stretching from the Thanksgiving week to the first week of the new year.

Noticeable last year however that November was rather lame, while December after Hanukkah, but especially the period called "Between The Years" in German – the week between Christmas and New Year – stepped on the gas again, clearly with closing before year's end in mind.

So my September prediction of a "limp market for SFH for the rest of the year, with a lot of hesitation on the buyers’ side" wasn't quite correct. Well, I sort of was, for two months of the last three in 2014.

The last quarter shaped up like this:

Listing prices: little increase in Palm Beach county (median $437,000), no changes in Broward and Miami-Dade counties (median $350,000 and 359,000 resp.)

Selling prices: a decrease of one percent in Palm Beach county was erased by a hefty six percent increase in Broward and four percent in Miami-Dade, for a Three-County median selling price of $273,230 or $140 per square foot under air ($1,555/square metre).

Inventory: closing the year with 19,268 single family homes for sale, inventory (in months) in all three counties had been down in October, increased in November and dropped again in December due to the strong sales at the end of the month, to 4.8 months. That is a little tight and under the approx. six months considered healthy.

SE Florida SFH sales data, Jan 2012-Dec 2014. Source: Kaiser Assoc. via SEF-MLS

On a side note, I am personally always baffled when statistics are "seasonally adjusted" – what does that mean and how does one adjust them? By temperature, snowfall or lack of snow, black ice, people nesting? It seems there is an awful lot of subjectivity in seasonal adjustments – why not leave the numbers alone and let the readers get their own picture?

Year over year, Southeast Florida thus saw a selling price increase for SFH of 4.5 percent absolute, or 6.2 percent per sf under air.

Modern architecture, my passion and expertise, is traded at considerably higher prices; the median selling price per sf under air last quarter reached $328.

That is partially due to the very limited number of modernist architecture for sale – less than 2 percent of all SFH – but also due to the overall value – tangible and intangible – that current and future owners attach to this type of architecture.
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I invite you to contact me anytime if you are would like advice on selling, keeping or buying a modernist home.

01 January 2015

To a Healthy, Happy and Abundant 2015!



(Pic: modernist multifamily home in Tutzing/Bavaria. Architect: Helga Quauke, Tutzing, photo ©tckaiser)

26 November 2014

Happy Thanksgiving!

Modern Florida homes, by real estate specialist Tobias Kaiser modernsouthflorida.com





















In gratefulness for what we have, a very Happy Thanksgiving to you and your loved ones!

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Photo: Zwetschgen (135205) ©tckaiser

21 November 2014

How much house you get for $2m nationally; On airline misery; Two opponents united

Several things are on my mind this week... here we go:

You may remember a weirdo in Raleigh, NC, who objected to a modern home being built after it was approved and half finished?

Well, the petty-minded neighbour lost, and the owners can complete construction of their modest modern in the Oakwood neighbourhood.

Modern homes by Florida real estate agent and modern architecture specialist Tobias Kaiser
The Weber house by Weber/Matsumoto, 1953
Now fate brought two former opponents in that case together again. How? A Raleigh homeowner wants to remove the historic designation she had sought for her 1953 modernist home, the Weber house.

At Wiesner vs. Cherry/Gordon on opposite sides, now North Carolina Modernist Homes and the Oak City Preservation Alliance are united in fighting against that little side-step, which seems driven by the owner's awakened sense of marketability.

Her argument: though she hopes the next owner will enjoy the house as it is, but: when she is ready to sell she could do so much easier without the burden of the designation.

So why seek it in the first place – for a tax break perhaps? Read all the juicy details at the News & Observer.

Lively mod scene up there, ain't it? And: did I mention that preservation starts with the seller, not the buyer?

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Off-topic: Bad week for Jet Blue-flyers. The once rule-breaking and beloved airline caved in – a sign of modern times?

It will A) charge for checked bags (yup), B) will start a tiered pricing system for tickets – the more flexibility you want, the more you pay – and C) will introduce a "cabin refresh".

That is what Caroline Costello over at SmarterTravel correctly calls "a pleasant-sounding way to tell us that other peoples' seatbacks (and elbows) will be closer than ever", and their planes "are going to get more crowded, with less available overhead-bin space".

Which leaves Southwest – for now – as the only domestic carrier where luggage flies for free.

But much more important: if your travel plans change, as mine did for reasons outside of my control three times this year, SWA does not charge re-booking fees.

Correct: no re-booking fee, only any possible fare difference. That policy saved my bacon three times in 2014 – this weekend one of those instances – and makes SWA my Go-To domestic carrier, preferred by lightyears.

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Modern homes by Florida real estate agent and modern architecture specialist Tobias Kaiser
The Duenke house by Ralph Fournier
Finally, back to Real Estate:

The Gray Lady (nickname for the New York Times stemming from the time before it started printing in colour) published an overview how much house you will get for $2,000,000 nationwide.

Following that, in my next post I will show you what $2m buys in South Florida.  


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Photos: News&Observer, New York Times

07 November 2014

South Florida Home Sales, 3rd Quarter 2014

Summer activity for Single Family Homes (SFH) in the TriCounty area (Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade, the area from Jupiter to South Miami) is completely over, the market is noticeably getting quieter. All key numbers for Q3 2014 show this, and – unlike during earlier periods this year – all three counties moved in unison.


SE Florida SFH sales for the last 36 months. red = list price, green = selling price, blue = inventory. Source: Kaiser Assoc.


Some key data for the third quarter:

1. Inventory ended at 18,395 SFH, an increase of 3.6 percent to the second quarter. It now sits at 5.0 months, a very strong 16.7 percent over Q2, since closed SFH sales dropped by 4.3 percent over the previous quarter.

2. Asking prices of all SFH are down, landing at a median $376,700. September was the sixth month in a row with declining list prices – but because of the list price volatility, it ended up only 1.0 percent under September 2013.

3. Selling prices per square foot are slightly up y-o-y at $135/sf. Not so absolute selling prices at $265,470, though they have fluctuated all over the board this year from $251,000 in January to $279,000 in July. Year over year though, median selling prices in Q3 were up by 5.5 percent, but flat in comparison to Q2. Recognise a pattern? Good, me neither.

Tracks of a horseshoe crab–similarities to the housing market?
My prediction: the market is going up or going down.

Seriously: I think we will see a limp market for SFH for the rest of the year and perhaps into early 2015, with a lot of hesitation on the buyers’ side, though financing does not seem to be the issue anymore.

In addition, very problematic is the lack of good homes in the market for modern architecture, which I focus on. Buyer interest is there, but under $600,000 there are barely any architecturally interesting homes for sale.

So if you consider selling a modernist property, by all means please do contact me for a free analysis and consultation.

24 October 2014

Your House Usually Isn't Worth As Much As You Think

That is a really good opener to win a popularity contest with sellers, right?  

But it is a situation sellers and their Realtors face daily, and believe me, I had my share of those moments. Excellent advice on how to tackle pricing properly appeared yesterday in the newsletter Realty Times:

Your house is super badass. It's easily the nicest home on the block. Great updates and a corner lot. You're going to make a fortune when you sell. You might even set a new record for the neighborhood.

It's all about making as much as you can, right?

Especially in a Seller's Market. Those two words get everyone that's about to put their house on the market all giddy. But "seller's market" doesn't mean license to be a real estate snob.

Somewhere between what the last people paid for a house like yours and the highest price suggested to you by a REALTOR - that's your sweet spot. But pinpointing it isn't always easy. Here are five tactics that will help.

1. Choose the right agent

The right agent is not necessarily the one that wants to list your home for the most money. In fact, an agent whose recommended list price is significantly higher than the other agents you are interviewing may be a red flag.

"Local agents have an inside track on what local buyers care about and what they will and will not spend. Talk to your agent about it, but don't forget to actually listen to and consider what your agent has to say," said Forbes. "If you don't trust what an agent is telling you about where you should list your home, talk to several agents -- if the consensus is a recommended list price range lower than what you had in mind, that's a sign you should reconsider."

2. Get comps

Comps, otherwise known as comparables, will tell you what other houses are selling for. It will also show you a pattern of sales trends over a period of time. But it can also be dangerous for anyone seeing dollar signs above all else.

If you're tempted to price your home high, check the comps, said Forbes. Active buyers do not "want to overpay for a home, and most will view your home as overpriced and not worth the hassle (or the haggle) if it is out of whack with the recent sales prices of similar homes. Similarly, appraisers will use these numbers when figuring out your home's value. Even if you do get an offer at a higher-than-justified price, if the buyer's appraiser finds that your home is overvalued compared to other nearby recent sales, it can cause major delays in your buyer's mortgage process -- or derail it altogether.

The bottom line:  Heed your agent's advice... he/she will be able to delve deeper into the trends and provide further context around them. Which brings us to:

3. Listen to your agent


You probably already have a good idea of the price you want for your house. But is it based on reality or is it simply a number that sounds good? Perhaps it's what you need to comfortably get out of your house and into something bigger. But that doesn't mean you'll get it.

A local seller not listening to the market for nine (!) years; cs = last sale date

"Here's a real estate fact that every home seller should know: Buyers determine the right price for a property, not sellers," said the Washington Post. "The market price for a home is determined by what an able and willing buyer ultimately pays for it. There are certainly things that homeowners can do to influence buyers' perceptions of their home's value and hence increase the price buyers are willing to pay for it. But, ultimately, the buyers will set the price."


4. Do additional research

In today's day and age, you can easily gather a mountain of information to help you understand the market in general, and, specifically, the market in your neighborhood. Pay special attention to the number of homes on the market in your projected price range. The more inventory, the more competition, the more pressure to make sure your home is priced right.

5. Consider the consequences

Pricing too high is a danger in that a house that sits on the market unsold will eventually have to lower its price. Chasing the market down is not something any seller wants to do. Plus, the longer a house sits on the market, the more momentum it loses from being a new listing. And all of this means one thing: money lost.

"Making a mistake on price can cost sellers thousands of dollars…not by under pricing the value of the home, but by overpricing it," said NH Homes.

Pricing right, or even lower, thereby creating interest (and possibly even a bidding war), is the easiest way to get your home sold. Your fear of leaving a few thousand dollars on the table upfront should pale in comparison to what could happen if you can't sell quickly, or at all, at your "preferred" price.
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What is your experience in pricing a home for sale? I would love to hear your input.

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Article ©Jaymi Naciri for Realty Times, photo illustrations ©tckaiser



15 October 2014

Architect Thomas Crowder, 1956 – 2014

Sadly, Thomas Crowder, architect and City Councilman in Raleigh, NC, died on Tuesday.

I had the pleasure to meet Tom during my wife's and my first exploratory visits to Raleigh. He was a very interesting man to talk to, very smart and very much on the ball.

While we were discussing architecture in the Triangle, he proudly gave me his business card and asked if I noticed something?

I said “yes, the spelling”: he had very slyly circumvented some legal naming convention and named his firm “ARCHITEKTUR”, which is the German spelling for Architecture; fitting for a modernist.

Godspeed, Tom, and all the best to your family.

Details on his work on NCMH, the announcement of his passing at the Raleigh News & Observer.